I want to speak on a few issues on the future development of Statistics in the Region. And I rest my case to pronounce on the subject on the basis of my training, teaching and using statistics at all levels at five universities in three continents over a post doctoral period of close to two fifths of a century, and I am still a continuing student of Statistics.

I wish to restrict my remarks to the following areas: (a) The Profession of Statistics (b) The Training of future Social Statisticians: an example from the Department of Sociology, Psychology and Social Work, UWI, Mona, Jamaica (c) Data Access and Human Rights – The Faculty of Social Sciences at Mona and the Government of Jamaica approach (d) Some suggestions on the way forward.

(A) The Profession

Who is a statistician? The answer is not as simple as it may seem. It may be one who has an employment letter to that effect, even though he/she has no formal training in the field or may have had only one introductory course in statistics. It may describe a person who has taken some courses in statistical methods but never obtained a degree, diploma or certification in the discipline, but has been able to convince a recruitment agency about his/her knowledge of the subject. It may include someone who had acquired a bachelor’s or an advanced degree in the discipline and may be currently practicing or has long ceased to use the subject. My sense is that a dispassionate review of the resumes of persons with the job titles of statisticians or higher will reveal that most of them never majored in mathematics or statistics in their first degrees. Most would have taken degrees in the social sciences (sociology, psychology, economics, geography) a few of them in other areas (business administration or management studies and pure and applied sciences). The point being articulated is that practitioners of the subject matter of statistics originate from several disciplines, that is, the practice of statistics is a multidisciplinary enterprise in this Region and elsewhere. This is true of demography, which is really an applied branch of statistics.

Given the reality that many statisticians in the same national statistical office have varying degrees of statistical sophistication at entry, should we not from time to time update their statistical methods and data analysis skills irrespective of their primary assignments. This continuing education can range from basic through intermediate and advanced topics. And this approach does not rule out the progressive training and retraining of officials in their specific official subject area in the national statistical organizations.

It is also incumbent on the senior management of national statistical offices to review the statistics content of the programme of tertiary level institutions from which they recruit their statisticians. In this regard the NSO, as a stakeholder, can make recommendations to the Heads of Departments of the relevant tertiary level institutions. At UWI, Mona, as part of the quality assurance strategy, every department is required to have periodic external reviews of its programme and plans. The review team includes academics external to UWI, but also members of the private sector. Also, in recent years, every Department had to establish an Advisory Board consisting of internal and external members to guide its development. The point I wish to stress is that such external input from the NSOs’ top management would be welcome, at least at UWI, Mona. However, the original question posed, ‘Who is a statistician?’ is only partially answered. The answer is not “I know a statistician when I see one’. To me a statistician is someone who has received high-level training in major aspects of the discipline and is currently in practice. Such a person should also retain membership in a professional association of statistical practitioners, a point I will return to later. I now turn to the training of statisticians for the 21st century in the Region.

(B) Training of Social Statisticians

Given the fact that most statisticians in the Region and elsewhere are not majors in mathematics and statistics, and they need not be, my concern is how best to equip future statisticians to function in their various roles in the national statistical and planning organizations. I share with you what we have been doing at the Department of Sociology, Psychology and Social Work, UWI, Mona. Beginning with the early 1990s we worked assiduously to strengthen our training in quantitative and qualitative skills in both the undergraduate and postgraduate programmes. The guiding principle continues to be the equipping of our students with skills that would make them more competitive in increasingly tough labour market. Consequently, we designed our programme to ensure that in each of the three years of study students take statistics and research methods courses: The programme is as follows:

Undergraduate Level

Year One Introductory Statistics Introduction to Social Research Year Two or Three Statistics for the Behavioural Sciences (Computer - aided with SPSS) Survey Design Monitoring and Evaluation of Social Programmes Qualitative Research Year Three Research Paper (for some students) Capstone Course (Group Research for some students) Demographic Techniques (for demography majors)

Postgraduate Level

MSc Sociology Advanced Research Methods I Statistics for Data Analysis

MSc Demography Advanced Research Methods I Advanced Research Methods II (Statistics) Advanced Demographic Techniques I and II Monitoring and Evaluation Geographic Information System

I must add that during the review of the undergraduate sociology programme in 2002/2003, the Chair of the Review Team, a distinguished UCLA Professor of Sociology, indicated that our quantitative training compared favourably with what obtained in the top ten Sociology programmes in the USA. We are waiting for the final report of a recently concluded second review. My perspective is that a product of our undergraduate programme can wear the badge of social statistician very confidently. And graduates of our undergraduate major in Demography and graduate programme in Demography are excelling in doctoral programmes in North America, United Kingdom and elsewhere. Permit me to beat my chest here:

(a) Three graduates from our MSc programmes recently completed their doctorate degrees at the University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago, City University of New York, USA, and Howard University, Washington D.C., USA

(b) Six are at various stages of their doctoral programmes at Bowling Green State University USA, University of Western Ontario, Canada, Southampton University, UK, and the University of the West Indies, Mona

(c) Three will be beginning their doctoral studies this Fall at Morgan State University, USA, University of Texas, San Antonio, USA and Bowling Green State University, USA

Those who have not yet proceeded to further training are working as research officers (Parliament, Tourism), demographers (planning Institutes), statisticians (NSOs) or teachers (secondary and tertiary levels). It is abundantly clear that this programme of training continues to produce students who have the appropriate skills to undertake doctoral studies anywhere or become readily employed in many areas where their skills are called for. I do not have to mention the names of my students who have been offered jobs with attractive salaries even before they finish their research papers. This is a programme that is based on the understanding that you can remain in your primary discipline, sociology, psychology, economics or geography, and be equipped with a lot of the skills you may be called upon to utilize in a modern technological society. This is a programme to be emulated. However, the success we have achieved at training future demographers and social statisticians would have been impossible if we did not have ready access to the country’s datasets. I turn to address this issue.

(C) Access to Data and Human Rights The protection of respondents’ records, including matters of anonymity and confidentiality must be at the forefront of the responsibility of any data manager in a modern democratic society. Therefore, publication of aggregate data in the form of tables of age-sex distributions of descriptive or inferential statistics by national or major political subdivisions cannot identify any individual or threaten his/her human rights.

The freedom of information legislations and the global demand for governments to be transparent in their operations suggest that we approach this issue from two levels. At one level, governments should not be in the business of blocking the publication of research findings by their agencies that show uncomfortable levels of infant, childhood or maternal mortality, unemployment, economic growth or decline, crime or domestic violence. The scientific concern should revolve around issues concerning the adequacy of the theoretical framework driving the study, methodological sophistication, instrument development, training and utilization of field workers and data management and analysis. The NSOs can deal with these issues, and once relevant senior persons certify the results obtained, the findings should be published. Of course, the appropriate authorities deserve the respect of being served first. They get the first copies off the print, and, after a specified time interval, the rest of us follow. If governments begin to direct the timing of the release of data that may give its opponents some ammunition, then democracy and good governance are under threat. At the second level of access is making raw data, identifiers removed, available to the community of scholars, researchers and other stakeholders. Here is where the Government of Jamaica and its agencies (Planning Institute, Statistical Institute, Ministry of Health, National Family Planning Board, etc) deserve our commendation for allowing the Derek Gordon Databank, SALISES, UWI, Mona to become a depository for data from population and housing censuses, surveys of living conditions, labour force surveys contraceptive prevalence surveys, reproductive health surveys, etc. Users are required to give some undertaking to be of good behaviour but after that the data are readily available for research and training.

Two examples come to mind. Our second year course, Statistics for the Behavioural Sciences, is a computer-based statistics course that includes training in SPSS and its use in a group project. The group project involves an exploration of a research topic through an analysis of data from a national survey. This course gives students hands on experience in group dynamics, commitment, data analysis using software they are likely to encounter at work, and report writing. The Derek Gordon Databank is the source of the data used. The second example is the graduate training in Demography that requires a research paper at the completion of thetaught courses. Most of the data that have been used to meet this requirement have been obtained from the Derek Gordon Databank, and a vast majority have been public data housed there because of a decision of Government. To date this resource has assisted us to graduate one PhD and more than 20 MSc Demography students. As I speak three Ph.D candidates and almost a dozen MSc students are working very hard on their research to meet a December 2009 deadline. This achievement would not have been possible without access to data.

One more point needs to be made, and it is an irony. I have noticed from time to time that while national stakeholders are denied access to a country’s data, such data are readily available to external interests and organizations. And citizens need to engage their national data for informed discussion on matters of national or regional concern. To do this properly and professionally, we need access to data with minimal limitations. And the data we are talking about is not just published figures but data at a micro level so that one can carry out an independent analysis.

(D) The Way Forward Finally, what is the way forward in the further development of statistics in the Region? What is to be done? I return to my original theme at the beginning of this address. Use what you have. First, we urge Governments to grant unfettered access to bona fide researchers, scholars and other stakeholders. They can borrow a leaf from Jamaica Secondly, governments should continue to strengthen what they already have - the NSOs – in terms of human, infrastructural and financial resources. Money is tight, and will continue to be so in future. But I have learnt one thing about governments. It is this: if a government has a pet project, it will find enough money and other necessary resources for it. I plead to governments: Make national statistical development a pet project, a priority.

Use what you have. We have the Standing Committee of Caribbean Statisticians and the Regional Coordinating Committee on Censuses. These two committees should initiate the formation of a regional professional association, the Caribbean Statistical Society for the further development of the discipline in the Region. In this endeavour they should seek the support of the Deans of Faculties of Social Sciences and Pure and Applied Sciences in our Universities. I do not need to mention PARIS 21; THEY ARE ALREADY HERE.

Finally, for the last time, we need to market our profession better to attract new entrants. It is my experience that when I have detailed to students what they can do with the acquisition of a reasonable level of quantitative skills that their faces light up, they try harder and most eventually like the subject or fall in love with it. This is not preaching to students as such but sharing facts of where those who have benefited from this training are in their life’s journeys. It is not only that the journey is exciting once you get the hang of it but attractive rewards await the traveler at journey’s end.